Why haven't we run out of oil, yet?

[numbbers]

Originally Posted by imaj Is the Sr. or Jr. Bush...numbbers?

Both, and Cheney too.

[Cheers]

Originally Posted by MyNewSolstice No one causes it....I just can't get by the Idea of the Oil in alaska being off limits because of Nature yet we continue to cut trees down to make wood..Do you not think birds don't nest in those trees do they matter less than bigger furry animals...It comes down to cuteness and never-seen-one-of-those factors...TRUST me I love to keep nature a rolling and for example am a member of Audobon But Progress is progress and it is just stupid....BUT THE BIGGER ISSUE is refining THat is the infrastructure we lack and the epa is the hand that ties the others and Without the help of Gov't to get it moving it is wortless to drill without Refining facilities. Also Stratigic Oil Reserve could be released overnight with anwar drilling which would drop the gas price by at least 30-50% IMHO It is I believe 3 months of Oil for the US to Survive in Worst case Scinerios....

We really don't cut that many trees (owls live in them), the lumber instritry moved to Canada

[silversolstice]

Originally Posted by Zerohero Peak Oil isn't the end of the world -- at least, not until the supply drops to the point where demand destruction kicks in -- but you get a lot more of an "a-ha, maybe ethanol does make some sense" if you anticipate continued reductions in petroleum output. Without peak oil, ethanol makes *no sense*. Even with peak oil it makes limited sense -- because the natural gas production curve follows the petroleum curve by 10-20 years and fertilizer (used to grow the corn to make the ethanol) is made from natural gas. My (admittedly suspicious) mind sees a lot of data which when assembled indicate that there's a really big energy crunch coming, as petroleum and natural gas deplete in conjunction with more nations desiring the same energy sources. For example, look at the price of uranium -- there's a move afoot to open a mine in Virgnia and reopen mines in Nevada since the price per ton of ore has gone from $10/ton to $150/ton (and that's unrefined ore!) There's a lot more scary stuff out there which I'm afraid of, in contrast to say "global warming" which I think is a bunch of hooey -- although I do believe in environmentalism for aesthetics -- I want the world I live in to be beautiful.

This is great stuff. Ethanol is only supplementary as long as we still have a lot of oil, Excellent point.

Are you implying that nuclear power is on the increase because of the price of uranium? Which I think would be awesome, but do build these plants in the states anymore?

[Cheers]

Originally Posted by silversolstice This is great stuff. Ethanol is only supplementary as long as we still have a lot of oil, Excellent point. Are you implying that nuclear power is on the increase because of the price of uranium? Which I think would be awesome, but do build these plants in the states anymore?

Three or four new plants are in the works. For all the "global warming" folks -- killing nuclear power in the US lead to burning coal like there was no tomorrow. Just ask the railroads. The sad thing about burning oil is that there are so many other uses. What we new is a good battery and no one seems close yet except maybe the A123 folks.

[Zerohero]

Are you implying that nuclear power is on the increase because of the price of uranium? Which I think would be awesome, but do build these plants in the states anymore?

Yes, for most of the last decade, at least (if not more) the United States has imported all of its uranium... its still a global market for it (albeit one that only states in the nuclear club can buy from).

The interesting thing about nuclear power is the relative lack of fuel... estimated at about 100 years supply right now I think (although that's dependent on usage). Of course, with a breeder reactor you can generate plutonium for fuel, but there seems to be a fairly strong reluctance to do that -- can't imagine why.

EDIT:
Its mostly other states that are increasing the buildout of reactors. Interestingly enough, for the western designs, there is a HUGE waiting list on the ONE foundry in Japan that can make reactor vessels forged out of a single piece of steel. I think the waiting list is 10 years long. You can weld the vessel together but that's disfavored. The US has an enormous coal reserve that other nations don't -- so they pretty much *have* to go nuclear to provide their base load.

[MyNewSolstice]

Originally Posted by Cheers Three or four new plants are in the works. For all the "global warming" folks -- killing nuclear power in the US lead to burning coal like there was no tomorrow. Just ask the railroads. The sad thing about burning oil is that there are so many other uses. What we new is a good battery and no one seems close yet except maybe the A123 folks.

The future is in Burning Salt Water....A former Co-Worker when My Dad was A DJ developed a way to use Radio Waves to bombard Salt Water to create Burn...The power to do so Vs. THe Power Produced is Promising! I will get him to send me some of the data on it...Ironically the technology is being looked at for treatment of cancer...Why? because the guy who came up with it has cancer and this may be the only way he survives...Movie Like scenario!

[VFX]

Not having a better energy policy is probably the most ridiculous thing. Oil is running out...for us. What oil we do have needs to be used in a better capacity; like plastics and insecticides that keep our crops growing. Will the world end in chaos without an endless oil supply? no. Will we improve MPG technology and alternate fuel sources for transportation? yes. 2010 will be a really interesting year with most domestic auto makers introduction electric / diesel technologies. Look on the bright side, those new electric cars will probably smoke ours off the line...without any smoke!

Originally Posted by silversolstice Many of your comments were spot on. My grandfather use to always say, "gas is still cheaper than it was in 1920", which I would reply "that doesn't keep any cash in my pocket today" Whether or not the WORLD is running out of oil isn't the issue, its a concern on our ABILITY to obtain the oil. US production peaked in 1970 and since then we have just been importing it and importing it giving us stranger and stranger bed fellows. I mean Mexico provides us 15% or our worldwide total second to Canada. I wonder if that leads us to look the other way when half their population runs over?(from An Inconvenient Book) Energy independence is very important, as much as I hate it we need to keep working on improving and perfecting ethanol just so we have a short term back up plan in case we lose any suppliers. We also need to drill in ANWAR. I mean Alaska is beautiful, but its also BIG. We can definitely leave a small footprint on there and still find possible oil supplies. I am glad to see a lot of people understand how ridiculous some of our policies are.

[alcyon73]

I used to work in the oil business as a geologist. I got out of it after prices dropped in the late 90's. It's a crazy business where you can go from Mercedes Benz to McDonalds in just a few days.

There is plenty of oil. We are not running out. What has happened is that all of the easy to find oil is gone so it costs more to get oil than it used to.

The bottom line is: How much is the consumer willing to pay to have more oil? Our use of oil increases every year but the rate of new oil discovered is declining. It's getting
harder and harder to get oil, so in the face of rising demand, the price goes up.

In the long run, don't expect the price to go back down very much.

ME

[pep]

The oil business is all a big monopoly, with a lot of pockets being lined with money.To some it's no big deal to pay for gas in your cars, but that extra cost gets carried over into every product we buy.I'm in the construction business and try filling a diesel truck every day with a 50 gallon tank at 225 dollars a day or a Mack truck at 500 dollars a day,then when I try to carry that price increase into my jobs, customers I give estimates to think I'm to expensive.So why is it, that people are willing to give the gas companies more money but they don't want to pay me for higher prices,so these higher prices effect everyone.It's easy to sit behind a desk and say it's no big deal unless you have an obcene amount of money,but think of this the next time everyone decides to fix up your home and that contracter gives you your estimate don't be sticker shocked....Maybe we need some electric powered trucks LOL.....

[StevieG]

Originally Posted by numbbers Both, and Cheney too.

Actually, it goes back to Nixon, Ford, Carter, and Reagan as well.
The US had an opportunity in the early 70s after the OPEC/Arab oil embargo, to develop new technologies and to develop more efficient engines/drivetrains for the internal combustion engine. Instead, we got downsizing and the move to "more space-efficient front wheel drive". Our government should have mandated alternative strategies and alternative energy models, again, back in the 70s. To come up with CAFE standards was a croc of sugarhoneyicetea. Now, we all need the internal combustion engine. We are an inefficient society and we are wasteful as consumers. Notice the WE in that, and that includes ALL politicians and Hollywood celebs--who are totally hypocritical with their 7 homes on 5 continents and their jet-traveling ways. It's a complicated and complex issue, but tapping into the Alaska and North American oil reserves isn't the long term answer. New cleaner technologies IS THE ANSWER.

[achieftain]

Originally Posted by MyNewSolstice The future is in Burning Salt Water....A former Co-Worker when My Dad was A DJ developed a way to use Radio Waves to bombard Salt Water to create Burn...The power to do so Vs. THe Power Produced is Promising! I will get him to send me some of the data on it...Ironically the technology is being looked at for treatment of cancer...Why? because the guy who came up with it has cancer and this may be the only way he survives...Movie Like scenario!

More ironically John Kanzius developed his "cure" knowing from the beginning that the type of cancer he has/had is not treatable by his original proposal. There is now evidence that modification of his procedure may now work on his type - but human trials are still a couple years off.

Meanwhile the demonstrated burning of saltwater may not provide the endless energy supply that it alludes to. First requirements are to determine not only the amount of energy expended to ignite teh flame but also the amunt of Btu's generated. Remember a candle burns and gives off heat and light, but you cannot heat your house with one, nor run your car by sticking a candle in the fuel tank, although the vertical 1/4 times are phenominal.

I forsee the burning of seawater having greater potential in teh desalination process, providing clean potable drinking water where other sources are scarece.

[Zerohero]

Originally Posted by achieftain Meanwhile the demonstrated burning of saltwater may not provide the endless energy supply that it alludes to. First requirements are to determine not only the amount of energy expended to ignite teh flame but also the amunt of Btu's generated. Remember a candle burns and gives off heat and light, but you cannot heat your house with one, nor run your car by sticking a candle in the fuel tank, although the vertical 1/4 times are phenominal.

The far bigger problem is the thermodynamic one; it literally MUST take more energy to execute this process than it yields.

Burning salt water will not fuel your car at Variable Fragment

Which isn't to say "whoo, neato, a nice bright orange/red flame and a melting test tube" but the guy pumps way more energy (in the RF frequencies) into the water to separate it into H + O than you get back out of burning that remaining byproduct.

Or, said differently, if you're going to power your car by hooking it up to high tension lines to drive the hydrolysis to burn to make a combustion energy run, why not skip a step and just drive a stator motor instead? In either case that extension cord gets in the way really fast.

[Genseis]

If ya don't like the price of fuel then quit driving

[achieftain]

Originally Posted by Zerohero The far bigger problem is the thermodynamic one; it literally MUST take more energy to execute this process than it yields. Burning salt water will not fuel your car at Variable Fragment Which isn't to say "whoo, neato, a nice bright orange/red flame and a melting test tube" but the guy pumps way more energy (in the RF frequencies) into the water to separate it into H + O than you get back out of burning that remaining byproduct. Or, said differently, if you're going to power your car by hooking it up to high tension lines to drive the hydrolysis to burn to make a combustion energy run, why not skip a step and just drive a stator motor instead? In either case that extension cord gets in the way really fast.

The process uses no "high tension wires" as it is teh bombardment of the solution by radio waves of a certain frequency that do whatever it does - even in the cancer treatment. True, there is no free energy other than pure solar, even burning of fossil fuels depends on the original creation of them due to solar energy. And to perform the work of translocating a car from point A to point B we use more energy than we create. It is a matter of efficiency and gas/diesel falls way at the bottom of efficiency. Other than the fact most people are scared fo radiation nuclear powered cars would be the most efficient, other than electric vehicles drawing power from the grid, either wirelessly as they drive beside or over embedded wires, or directly, like electric trains with pantographs.

[AztekzRpurty]

Gasoline will be irrelevant when the super-capacitor cars dominate in 20 years..

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