Which Roadsters Will Be Around in 5 Years?

[65MGB]

I think there will only be 6 under $100K: 350Z, Kappas, Corvette, 911, BMW 6, Audi TT.

The market will only support 100,000 annual sales. Kappas would take 40K, 350Z 10k, Corvette 10K, Audi, BMW and 911 the rest.

[SolsticeMan]

I bet the MX-5 will exist in some form. I also bet the S2000 will exist in some form, and a mid-engine or maybe a new platform from Toyota too.

The market is 100,000 NOW, but if the kappas expand or grow the market, there's still room for more.

[65MGB]

Originally Posted by SolsticeMan I bet the MX-5 will exist in some form. I also bet the S2000 will exist in some form, and a mid-engine or maybe a new platform from Toyota too.

How can Mazda continue MX-5 when it is not profitable now with $3,000 discounts off MSRP? In 5 years with 4, or maybe more, Kappas in good supply, MX-5 must die unless lightening strikes twice for von Holtzhausen.

I haven't heard of anything being developed or planned by Honda or Toyota. I question whether they would enter a market niche that they can't dominate. They would have to create a compelling car and Toyota certainly didn't have any success with its last roadster effort. Honda doesn't do turbos so competing with GXP/Redline doesn't seem possible.

[SolsticeMan]

Originally Posted by 65MGB How can Mazda continue MX-5 when it is not profitable now with $3,000 discounts off MSRP? In 5 years with 4, or maybe more, Kappas in good supply, MX-5 must die unless lightening strikes twice for von Holtzhausen. I haven't heard of anything being developed or planned by Honda or Toyota. I question whether they would enter a market niche that they can't dominate. They would have to create a compelling car and Toyota certainly didn't have any success with its last roadster effort. Honda doesn't do turbos so competing with GXP/Redline doesn't seem possible.

Toyota? They have been working on an MR2 sucessor - that's not new news. True, they stopped selling the current MR2 in states, but a next gen MR2 may have some legs if it is fresh enough.

Mazda? rarely do they sit still. Honda is also not a company to sit still, either.

[stang]

A look into the affordable American Roadster market of 2011:

• Pontiac Solstice - Second Generation debuts on the Kappa II platform shared with the hot selling RWD Pontiac Tempest & Saturn Sun. Big news this year is more trunk, no clunk. Sales are expected to be brisk as the new model matches the MX-5 with 26/32MPG and 200HP. The GXP takes a year off.
• Saturn Sky - Gone.
• Honda C2000 - The little brother to the 350HP S3000. This little roadster gets 32/37 MPG and 190HP. We expect this car to be quicker than the others, since it weights 500lbs. less than even the MX-5.
• Mazda MX-5 - Refreshed in 2009 with dashing good looks, the MX-5 has become a strong contender to the Solstice thanks to its better MPG and HP. That goes away for 2011. Look for the 300HP Mazdaspeed MX-5 to take advantage of no GXP this year, on and off the track.
• Ford Falcon - Ford jumps in the roadster ring with Ford Falcon. While based on the old Mazda MX-5 chassis, Ford has stretched it, weighted it down, and taken away any sportiness the platform had. It only gets 20/28 MPG and 180HP, which is no longer competitive in this segment. The SVT version was scrapped in favor a hybrid version to appease the environuts. This was the last car Bill Ford oversaw before he went brain dead from holding his breathe too long in a futile attempt to help lower Carbon Dioxide levels.
• Mercury Mermaid - This identical twin to the Ford Falcon has a waterfall grill, Mercury badging, and clear turn signal lights instead of yellow. Other than that, it's the same car. Why bother after the Fusion/Milan disaster? We were afraid to ask.
• Lincoln MKR - This is the Lincon version of the Falcon/Mermaid roadsters. It has a Lincoln grill, different headlights, different tail lights, and a unique interior. It is also $10,000 more than the others and we don't know why. Again, Ford just doesn't seem to get it.
• Hyundai Trident - This is the car that is shaking up the landscape. It is $2,000 less than the base Solstice and with 30/36MPG and 205HP, offers more grunt and better fuel economy. Add to that, the sexy body work and this is the new car to beat. The car will be produced in Alabama and exported all over the world.

[achieftain]

Add:
*BMW Z2 little sis to last year's Z5 with the U8 engine originally developed by VW. The Z2 sports a twin turbo 2.0 all aluminum engine jointly shared with Chinese MG/Rover, putting out 230hp. Like the prior Z's this one is built stateside but the hatchback version is imported.

*Toyota MR4H Spyder a hybrid version of the back in production MR boasting a combined 250 hp and 0-60 in 4.0 seconds under electric drive and economy button dislocated as done by the experts at C&D magazine.

And why is this thread in TWW?

[stang]

Good addidtions.

Originally Posted by achieftain And why is this thread in TWW?

I guess 65MGB wanted to play it safe.

[solli4me]

Mercury Mermaid and Hyundai Trident? Are these amphibious cars? Jk, saw the pic of the '57.

[Drex]

I would guess pretty much all the current ones will be around. Maybe BMW will change their roadster's name again. I don't think Benz will be doing away with the SLK's, I don't think Chrysler will be getting another version. New MR2... maybe under the Scion brand. Hyundai is coming out with a pony car, so I could see a roadster being a possibility.

I want to say Kappa will be nearing the end of it's life and ready for a refresh in 5 years, but I feel GM will keep the Sol and Sky pretty much unchaged up to MY2013. The newest kid on the block won't be a selling point anymore and those who don't mind the lack of cargo room have one. Sales will be down and Kappa II will be canned.

[achieftain]

Originally Posted by solli4me Mercury Mermaid and Hyundai Trident? Are these amphibious cars? Jk, saw the pic of the '57.

http://www.solsticeforum.com/forum/s...85&postcount=6 See that's what happens when the Barracuda is the first "pony" car.

Hyundai has everything they need to burst onto the scene with a roadster based on the Tiburon, plus domestic facilities. All they have to do is get out the torch.

[65MGB]

Originally Posted by stang Good addidtions. I guess 65MGB wanted to play it safe.

Actually I think people are smarter over here.

We have to consider that China might do a GXP knock-off and sell it for $15K.

[stang]

Originally Posted by solli4me Mercury Mermaid and Hyundai Trident? Are these amphibious cars?

I guess I had water on my mind.

[mceb]

Moving to other car discussion.

[jimbo]

I can safely say the Boxster is here to stay. Porsche has a track record of refining their cars for the long haul.

Other than that, all bets are off.

Honda's track record with the NSX and S2000 are to let them shrivel and die. It wouldn't surprise me if the S2000 goes out of production.

The Nissan Z is a sports car 1st and a convertible second. The Z should stay for the long haul, but who knows how much longer they will offer it in topless trim. One doesn't require the other.

I think the Z4 is here to stay. BMW seems committed to having a convertible sports car in their lineup.

I like to think the MX-5 is here to stay on heritage alone. But who knows? I would say it would have to stay since it really defines Mazda separately from your average Japanese manufacturer like Mitsubishi or Suzuki.

The Solstice and Sky are real wildcards. If those Divisions do well, I can see the General killing those sports car. I can also see these sports car going on and on. So who knows?

I remember when convertibles were an endangered species. It was not that long ago. Believe it or not, it could happen again.

[toddwcarpenter]

Originally Posted by 65MGB How can Mazda continue MX-5 when it is not profitable now with $3,000 discounts off MSRP?

Those incentives were to help winter sales. They worked. Mazda USA had their best month of MX-5 sales during February since 1998. Demand for the MX-5 is so strong, the factory line has scaled back RX-8 production by about half to make room (they share the same line). Worldwide, they've sold more than 40,000 MY2006 MX-5s and have reported record profits for the company.

Next month, at the London Auto Show, Mazda will unviel it's retractable hardtop option. Most of the rumours suggest that the $2000 powered top will lower in 12 seconds, weighs only 80 pounds more than the soft top, and takes up absolutely no trunk space. This car is in Mazda's ordering system for 2007, dealers can alread see the "RHT" option and cars will show up in the US by October.

I don't think the MX-5 is going anywhere.

As far as what cars will be around. I think there's just as good a chance that every roadster (and more) will be around in five years. With gas on the rise, many folks will be flocking to toys that sip less than their boats, campers, or SUV's. Just look at Europe, the small car maket is booming, not econo cars, but great small cars.