I saw this thread a couple days ago and it intrigued me, so I saved it to read today.... after I just got back from Kappa overload on the first day drive part of the Palm Springs tour. Thanks to Bob and Myrna and other integral folks for a day of fun!
This thread has been been full of insight and I probably am in the situation most close to @wspohn
. I have had "rare" cars for years and have had many people ask me "what collector car" to buy as an investment and particularly in the past few years I have decided its very similar to the "black arts" of "Suspension engineer" and an "Accurate Economist"! There are so many moving parts to what will make a car valuable in the future it's hard to predict. The only thing you can count on is some truisms and observations. MOST have be touched on here by various people, But I'll try to list-- maybe with it's own rebuttal or exception.
Part of the hard part is how one "truism" can affect the other.
In no particular order..
1. Rarity.-> Mr Spohn knows of TVRs, you can too if you Google, but since they started in 1949, it took until 1980 to make 5,000 cars. Only a few are very valuable, only recently have the "less" valuable ones gained some resale value. So Rarity alone does not always mean worth.
2 Desire to own while new. -This does hold lots of water, BUT as I noticed over the years, "A rising tide, raises all boats". People looking for their "dream car" of their youth, will often find comparison articles of "their car" to others. Many people will even know, or know very little about the "comparison cars". A Kappa may fit their bill. This drove some TVR values through the roof when found that minor mods could allow them to run with Cobras. TVRs will never approach Cobra values, but several rose quite high all because when looking at Cobras, people found out about TVR Griffiths and Tuscans.
3. Best of the Breed.-This one holds pretty true and is hard to get around. Whatever platform you have the "highest performance options" of that platform will universally show higher returns.. The GXP cars fit that platform versus the N/A cars. It has been traditional the the "manual" option was worth more than an automatic. Time will see if that continues to hold true. Where the debate lies is how long it will take to see these "higher returns". Sadly, It think it will be a looooong time before the N/A cars see an uptick in value.
4. The youth and the future is against us. - By that and as mentioned before, the gasoline engine is in the process of being "given notice". I actually see the government as the biggest threat as to future collectability. They are a passionless group, driven by the whim of the people. If the public at large decides that gas engines are the death of us all, the values will fall in the bucket... except for #3 as noted, the best of the best will be like collecting art. You may not drive it, but it will be awesome to stare at. I think youth and their tastes go in cycles, so often what is disdained by one generation is endorsed by another. As to the small group of future youth that may covet a Kappa, will that be enough to get giant values?
Here's my takeaways and what I have told others.
If you are considering modding.. LOOK FOR PROJECTS IF YOU HAVE A BEAUTIFUL EXAMPLE OF THE BREED! Give the opportunity to own an unmolested example to someone else, or let it be. There are ALWAYS abandoned projects looking for a new home. You may be the one who brings it back on the road and cheers to you! But primarily, you didn't take a wonderful one off the road.
First and foremost!! BUY WHAT YOU LOVE AND HAVE A PASSION FOR! No one can predict the future and if you win out and make money down the road, yay for you, if you didn't make money, at least you loved what you had!.
Love the thread and Thanks for reading!