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I do remember that H1N1 infected 61 million Americans in it's first year... luckily with a low death rate.
 

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We do have other diseases with higher death rates but they dont spread as fast or kill so many within a few weeks. When I see reefer trucks lined up outside hospitals to hold the dead, I take this virus seriously. As for the economy, I've lived through other recessions and I'd rather be broke than dead because there was no room in the hospital. I can get over broke, I have before, not death.
 

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I think we have to remember that the mortality rate is around 2% when we can apply all the resources that are needed to try to save everyone. Once we exceed the number of ventilators they have to start deciding which of their patients they are going to attempt to save. If 5%of the patients need to be ventilated and we only have enough for 2% how many are we leaving to die? Its hard to say because maybe we will only have to deny treatment to those that were likely to die anyway but I would expect the percentage to go up. These are the people we are attempting to save with social distancing.
The numbers are still too small to get accurate statistics but this study has a number of interesting preliminary conclusions.
 

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Being the morbid individual that I am....

3/23/20 - % of U.S. population that died of this virus = .000143%
4/5/20 - % of U.S. population that died of this virus = .003936%

4/5/20 - % of world population that died of this virus = .00000088998718%

The numbers are from CDC reports and estimated population counts from 2019.

I find it curious why our governor in Michigan has ordered delays in applications for the Freedom of Information Act and the state health department is no longer reporting the number of Covid tests that are negative.
 

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Let's put this in prospective. When was the last time other than WW II that 16,000 people die in Italy in a matter of less than 2 months?. How about converting hotels into hospitals etc...
You have never seen anything like this happening with the flu, or any other disease for the last 50 to 60 years.
Is very contagious and if it was not for the distancing and lock downs most countries have taken, the death rate would be 100K per month.
By the way it was reported today, that the stimulus for the small business has already put back over 3 million workers in the payroll of this small business.
 
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Let's put this in prospective. When was the last time other than WW II that 16,000 people die in Italy in a matter of less than 2 months?. How about converting hotels into hospitals etc...
You have never seen anything like this happening with the flu, or any other disease for the last 50 to 60 years.
Is very contagious and if it was not for the distancing and lock downs most countries have taken, the death rate would be 100K per month.
By the way it was reported today, that the stimulus for the small business has already put back over 3 million workers in the payroll of this small business.
You are soooo right. In about two weeks more Americans will have died in a month than were killed during the ENTIRE Vietnam war. This is like nothing we have seen in 102 years. Blaming it on the news media, or comparing it to colds or the flue is like burying your head in the sand. It is here, RIGHT NOW, and pretending it “isn’t so bad” will only make the death toll worse. It is time to listen to the medical experts, accept shelter in place and social distancing, and focus on surviving this pandemic.
 

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I just don't get how it is acceptable to go into a crowded store for food and toilet paper... but going to work is risky?
 

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I just don't get how it is acceptable to go into a crowded store for food and toilet paper... but going to work is risky?
It is fairly simple reasoning. If you can’t obtain food, you WILL DIE. Work, movies, restaurants, stores etc etc are not truly essential in most cases. As far as those workers providing essential services...they ARE working. And some will die. I hope this helps you “GET IT”. Please understand I am not trying to be rude, but threally is deadly.
 

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I just don't get how it is acceptable to go into a crowded store for food and toilet paper... but going to work is risky?
The short answer (beyond Wendell's response) is that it ISN'T acceptable. That's why the stores are now implementing limits on the number of people in the store and putting in distance markers. It's also why the White House has now recommended that folks DON'T go to the grocery store for the next 2 weeks.
 

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What I'm trying to 'get' is all these people wearing expensive N95 and N99 mask with exhaust flaps valves... watching people wearing gloves touching their wallets, purses and phones... and all this home delivery - imagine a box coming into your home from another country or handled somewhere along it's route by someone infected. This is not to diminish this virus or those that are sick and dying, but I hope at some point in the future we can look back and come up with a better plan.
 

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I feel sure we will come up with a better plan for the next time from the experience we gain from this. I think Winston Churchill described us exactly right in 1942 when he said "America will always do the right thing, after they have tried everything else first."
 

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Discussion Starter #152
We are both high risk at home so we are limiting our exposure. We have our groceries delivered. A little effort at decontamination as part of the delivery process works wonders. The virus is not robust outside the host and easily killed. Its taking about 3 days to get a delivery so I just place an order every couple of days and keep an eye on inventory. We have enough to "survive" without outside assistance but its nice to have perishables on hand so we can be more normal.
We go for a brisk walk nightly depending on the weather and work out in the house using weights and two sets of stairs. We maintain social contact with our neighbors and the kids using social distancing and on line comm.
I am much more relaxed working from home than having to go into the office daily.
Looking forward to a return to normal but life right now while higher risk is going pretty well. Looking at as kind of a forced vacation with work thrown in LOL
 

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Drove by the local Superstore this morning - a ton of people in a line (not 2 meters apart as recommended) some of whom had brought the kids (one assumes they had no alternative). Just kept on going by - not a great environment fo avoiding infection.

Doing a lot of gardening and some botanical macrophotography, reading all the books I hadn't got around to and catching up on my 'to be listened to" stack, although hampered in a minor way by a preamp that went out in a power surge a couple of days ago and one turntable that is out for re and re. Have enough wine for several years, so no need to join the relative crowds at the liquor store doors at opening time. Feel sorry for the hospitality industry though - have known friends in that biz that are always about one pay cheque away from penury.

Walking around the neighbourhood, most people are polite and careful. keeping their distance. I am betting that the powers that be are underestimating how long this social isolation will be necessary, and that we may still be dealing with this well into the Autumn (but I hope I am wrong).
 

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That's the problem with "flattening the curve" - it doesn't reduce the area beneath it, it just extends it.

BUT - the benefit is less taxing of the medical community's ability to respond and support and though the virus may exist for a longer period, it also creates the possibility of vaccines or treatments to be developed.

Here's today's update of the percentage of people in the world who haven't died from this virus:


0.000000967884615​
 

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Kind of thought that's what I meant when I said this:

"BUT - the benefit is less taxing of the medical community's ability to respond and support and though the virus may exist for a longer period, it also creates the possibility of vaccines or treatments to be developed. "

; ) !
 

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Kind of thought that's what I meant when I said this:

"BUT - the benefit is less taxing of the medical community's ability to respond and support and though the virus may exist for a longer period, it also creates the possibility of vaccines or treatments to be developed. "

; ) !
Yeah, I thought so too. Maybe its a language thing.
 

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I know that I will catch a lot of flack from saying this - but here it goes... One death is too many but at what cost to 'our' system. We passed a two Trillion dollar government stimulus package, without figuring the cost incurred by the private sector, at 10,000 deaths in the US, that's 200 Million per casualty. And what do we say to the families of the yearly 70,000 drug overdose victims (or insert many other diseases and accidental causes of deaths here)? I assure my other Kappa brothers that I do have a soul and that I am very concerned about this virus - my wife works in a hospital.
 

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I know that I will catch a lot of flack from saying this - but here it goes... One death is too many but at what cost to 'our' system. We passed a two Trillion dollar government stimulus package, without figuring the cost incurred by the private sector, at 10,000 deaths in the US, that's 200 Million per casualty. And what do we say to the families of the yearly 70,000 drug overdose victims (or insert many other diseases and accidental causes of deaths here)? I assure my other Kappa brothers that I do have a soul and that I am very concerned about this virus - my wife works in a hospital.
First I am going to say that if we had reacted the way Taiwan did, by closing our borders to anyone from China and then checking every incoming passenger from anywhere for illness and either quarantined or "returned to sender" all of those who were ill, we wouldn't be having this discussion. Unfortunately we didn't, for a variety of reasons both valid and invalid, and we can't go back, so here we are.

I think that you are looking at this wrong, and you have to look at the cost of doing nothing. The stimulus is needed because we shut down the economy to slow the spread of the virus. If we hadn't shut down the economy the entire country would start to look like New York, and it would have shut down anyway. The difference is that we don't have as many sick or dead, and the medical system is being stretched but hasn't collapsed. Yet. We will also have an easier time getting the engine started again, because more people will be here to do it. A controlled crash, however bad it still is, is always better than an uncontrolled one, it just comes down to the degree of bad.

As for what we say to other victims? Nothing. The actions we are taking really aren't about saving lives, that is just a side benefit. They are about saving a way of life, and nothing on your list threatens it like this virus does.

As a side note, I have seen references in the foreign press that call this the CCP virus, for Communist Chinese Party virus. I think it fits.
 
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