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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
Wait Listed at 2:25 PM (DST)

I was at my Dealer at 1:30 PM (DST) and at exactly 2:00 PM he tried to login. He obviously had some issues but finally made it and got my order in and confirmed. My time stamp is 2:35 PM and my current status is wait listed. Even though my dealer said I was pending on the 15th of April. Anyone else have similar issues. Also, why at 2:25 Pm am I wait listed??? What do you think the likely hood of actually getting one of the first 1000 is?

I am so frustrated, as most of you are... :cuss:

Congrats to the confirmed 1000 Solstice owners.
:party:
 

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Hope it was really 2:25 EDT, not 2:25 EST....

SolsTis06 said:
I was at my Dealer at 1:30 PM (EST) and at exactly 2:00 PM he tried to login. He obviously had some issues but finally made it and got my order in and confirmed. My time stamp is 2:35 PM and my current status is wait listed. Even though my dealer said I was pending on the 15th of April. Anyone else have similar issues. Also, why at 2:25 am I wait listed??? What do you think the likely hood of actually getting one of the first 1000 is?
Two things come to mind
  1. Eastern DAYLIGHT Time is one hour earlier. Did you mean EDT or EST?
  2. Some folks got wait listed during the process even before 2:42 EDT. Probably system difficulties due to the heavy load of folks trying to get the exact same operation done.
Now, before you get too mad at the programmers, keep in mind that had the systems operated flawlessly, and handled every web hit is milliseconds, rather than what happened with the overloading condition, then almost certainly, all 1000 would have gone in the first 2 minutes. Then, it would have been a speed typist's race. As it was, there was NEVER going to be one EOP in each of 2000+ dealerships who signed up--there were only 1000 cars, so your odds were less than a coin toss going in. So, what we wound up with was a lottery of the first attempted who didn't have to win a speed typing race, but did have to be very patient and persistent for about 45 minutes. Stressful, yes, but in the end, the cars were distributed randomly, rather than to the rich (who could out bid others) or to the swift of keyboard and mouse (the internet/computer savvy).

Now, on to your other question. Well, given your wait list time stamp, you're almost certainly one of the earliest.

Let's do a little statistical approximation arithmetic. If the numbers from Excelsior are a good sampling, then of the 62 orders we have listed as Pending or Confirmed before 2:42, we have 7 Wait List entries mixed into that slice of the sample.

So, given about 1000 cars, about 7/62 times 1000 is good guess as to the number on the wait list BEFORE 2:42. That's:
7 / 62 * 1000 ~= 112​
So, you're in the ball park.

Now, let's look a bit closer: What's the fraction of that 112 that might be ahead of you? Well, in our sample, 3 of 7 early wait list entries are before 2:35, thus your're at about the 3 1/2 mark through that 7. So, of that 112, you'd be some where in the middle:
3.5 / 7 * 112 ~= 56​
So, you could be somewhere around the 56'th person on the waiting list.

Now the margin of error is fairly large, and there is no real way to know, because we don't have access to the actual data set, but this is not a bad guess. However, this argument depends on your watch being set correctly for Daylight Saving Time. If you were really there at 1:30 EST, then by the time you got your entry in, it would have been 3:35 EDT, and the numbers don't look very good at all. So, I hope your watch had been "sprung forward".

From another thread, I posted that when I asked, the EOP HQ whether or not there had been any disqualifications, they said, "Yes, many." Obviously that's not a precise number, but since they had only gotten down through about the 1st 1/3 of the list (guessing by the intake time stamps and the distribution of the confirmation calls being weighted toward the earlier time stamps) that means there were about 600 or so to go on Monday.

So, is it likely you'll be moved to the 1st 1000 queue? No. Is it possible? Yes. How good are my chances? That depends largely on how many are removed by disqualification. And they are checking that very carefully. At this point, only time will tell. It's not a coin toss, but it's looking more like getting the same number on two consecutive throws of the dice, than like being struck by lightening.

I wish I could be more help, but we're way out on a limb with these estimates, so use the appropriate 10 pound block of salt when you read this.

----

Edits & comments: When I was working on this, I used the 2:35 mark for your time stamp. I've seen in other threads (and even within the same post that you say you have a 2:25 time stamp. If that 2:25 time stamp is true (others have discovered the Daylight Saving Time bug in their own wrist chronometers as well) then, you're probably much closer to the beginning of the list, and your odds are somewhat better.

Best of luck either way.
 

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Discussion Starter #3 (Edited)
Thank you Crimson Avenger for your post, it was most helpful. I mis-typed the original post, it was the currect time, but I didn't enter in DST for Daylight Savings Time. I will cross my fingers and hope that I get picked from the wait list.

:cheers:
 

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SolsTis06 said:
Thank you Crimson Avenger for your post, it was most helpful. I mis-typed the original post, it was the currect time, but I didn't enter in EDT for Daylight Savings Time. I will cross my fingers and hope that I get picked from the wait list.

:cheers:
I notice you are in NJ. Assuming your watch was set to the same time as the rest of us in NJ, you should have been on the "right" time for the EOP start at 2pm Eastern Time, which ended up being EDT. It was the people in Indiana, who don't "do" Daylight Savings Time, who got screwed by GM's interpretation of what Eastern Time is, since Indiana is on EST.
 

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SolsTis06 said:
Thank you Crimson Avenger for your post, it was most helpful. I mis-typed the original post, it was the correct time, but I didn't enter in EDT for Daylight Savings Time. I will cross my fingers and hope that I get picked from the wait list.

:cheers:
You're most welcome. I hope this gives some encouragement to our other members with early wait list time stamps. As I said in another post:
Crimson Avenger said:
I did ask a couple of questions:

Q: How many have you confirmed so far?
A: Oh, a whole bunch.

Q: Have you had any disqualifications yet?
A: Many; some were dealers, and we're researching that very well.​
So for our colleagues on the wait list, there is some hope. :cool:
So, looking at this, and at my post above regarding the approximate location on the waiting list for the early wait listers, yes, it's definitely possible. Time will tell.

Since yours seems to be the earliest wait list time we have, you may well be closer to the top 20, than in the mid 50's. So, we seem to be looking at a probability closer to getting a red Ace in cutting cards, but that's more wild guess than statistical speculation.

I am encouraged that getting through about 1/3 of the 1000 to date in terms of the first calls, that there have been "many" disqualifications. I read this as being more than several, so I make the number to be somewhere North of 5. Now, that was about the same time they started making a few of the second calls, so I would expect that ratio to rise somewhat under their closer scrutiny as they go through their relationship investigations back at EOP HQ.

Will there be folks moved from the waiting list into the 1st 1000 queue? Yes. Will all of the early Waiting List time stamps be moved? Maybe. Should I add salt to my diet when reading The Crimson Avenger's probability speculations? Yeah! go get a 10 lb block!

Don't give up yet.

To quote my self from the FAQ: How do I know if I got one of the 1st 1000? (Checklist & other info):
Crimson Avenger said:
Most importantly, remember, even if you did not get one of the 1st 1000, if you placed an order, then you signed up to get one of the first regular production vehicles from your dealer's regular allocation. The 1st 1000 are a special program dreamed up by Pontiac Marketing, so if you didn't get one, don't forget why you tried to order the car in the first place: it's a wonderful car for all of the reasons documented elsewhere in this forum, and you liked it enough for enough of the right reasons to place an order.
Don't lose site of what drew you to the car in the first place.

May the probabilities collapse to unity for you.
 
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